Will Blue Apron Continue its Meteoric Rise?

Blue Apron (NYSE:APRN) is an American ingredient-and-recipe meal kit service. Interest in the service has exploded over the course of the COVID-19 lockdowns that have swept across North America and much of the world. Shares of Blue Apron have soared a stunning 310% month-over-month as of close on March 30.

The company released its fourth quarter and full-year results for 2019 on February 18. Net revenue dropped 33% year-over-year to $94.3 million in Q4, reflecting a deliberate reduction in market spending. Net loss shrank to $21.9 million over a net loss of $23.7 million in the prior year.

For the full-year net revenue decreased 32% to $454.9 million. This was driven by a decrease in customers, which explains why Blue Apron’s stock was in such a rut at the start of March. Adjusted EBITDA for 2019 posted a loss of $8.4 million, which was down from a loss of $61.4 million in fiscal 2018.

Investors should be careful not to burn themselves with Blue Apron. Shares are still trading at the lower end of its 52-week range. The quarantine should provide a boost, but even in locked-down areas grocery retailers are open and supply chains have remained mostly intact. An interest in Blue Apron’s business model may be overstated.
The phenomenon that has led to Blue Apron’s run is interesting, but long-term investors should look elsewhere in a market that is full of appealing discounts.

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