USD/CAD - Traders Wary of Crude Inventories

The Canadian economic calendar is empty until Friday's Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures. Expectations are for Net Change of +10,000 while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 6.5%. API releases crude oil inventories and the Energy Information Administration in the U.S. forecasts are for -3.1 million declines in stockpiles, which will be reported at 10:30 a.m. today.

ADP Employment Change has been released and the report shows that employment fell when expectations were for 190,000 and the net change in jobs in the U.S. only increased by 178,000. Traders will listen to some Fed members speaking today including Loretta Mester at 3 p.m. EDT and John Williams at 7:30 p.m. EDT. The U.S. dollar remains mixed as the currency stays in tight ranges in anticipation for the Non-Farm Payroll data on Friday. We expect this outlook to continue until 8:30 a.m. Friday when data is released.

Experts expect a range today of $1.2518 to $1.2616

It is a quiet day on the fundamental side with only second-tier data releasing. Producer Price Index in June was in line with expectations releasing at -0.1% m/m and 2.5% y/y. Purchasing Managers' Index data will continue its release tomorrow along with euro-zone Retail Sales. The euro is currently trading at $1.4851.

Traders expect a range today of $1.4807 to $1.4895

U.K. Construction PMI in July fell short of expectations of 54.0 and printed at 51.9, which is the slowest rate in almost a year. Super Thursday is on deck tomorrow as Bank of England is having their monetary policy and releasing their inflation report. The pound is currently trading at $1.6608.

Commentators expect a range today of $1.6552 to $1.6663

The Australian dollar remains soft today despite the release of much stronger Australian building approval data, which saw a 10.9% jump in June. The figure was much higher than the forecast of 1.2% and a vast improvement from the previous month’s reading of -5.4%. A drop in iron ore prices looks to be weighing down on the commodity currency. The focus now turns to Australian Trade Balance at 9:30 p.m. EDT tonight.

Oil (WTI): $49.26 U.S. per barrel

Gold: $1,266.67 U.S. per ounce

Silver: $16.57 U.S. per ounce

Copper: $2.8768 U.S. per ounce

Dollar Index: 93.02

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