The latest edition of the annual UN climate summit ended with little fanfare on Friday, marking a decade since the famous Paris Climate Agreement of 2015. Dubbed COP30, the summit held in Brazil followed the usual pattern of the experts warning of how far off track the world is from meeting its climate goals, but failed to discuss a shift away from fossil fuels for the second year running. However, here’s a little ‘trivia’ the experts rarely talk about: the world has by far exceeded the most ambitious climate forecasts from just a decade ago, with renewable energy and electric vehicle adoption growing much faster than expected.
To wit, 553 gigawatts of solar power--enough to power 100 million U.S. homes--was installed across the globe last year, 15 times more than the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected in 2015. The world’s total installed solar capacity is now four times what the IEA projected 10 years ago. Meanwhile, more than 20% of new vehicles sold worldwide today are EVs, a dramatic increase from less than 1% in 2015. The world is now on track to hit 100 million EVs in 2028, even if growth flatlines from here.
But here’s the kicker: the planet is on course to record a 2.6 degrees increase in global temperatures by 2100, avoiding the catastrophic 4 degrees projected just a decade ago.
So, why did the navel gazers get it so wrong this time around? A big part of it is that modelers grossly underestimated the scale of clean energy manufacturing in China which has helped drive down renewable energy costs. China's immense scale of clean energy manufacturing has fundamentally driven down global costs of renewable technologies through economies of scale and innovation, making clean energy the most affordable option in most markets worldwide.
As of 2024, China accounted for over 80% of global solar panel production across all key stages and produced around 60% of the world's wind turbines and battery cell manufacturing. China's current manufacturing capacity for solar panels and batteries is greater than the global demand, leading to a supply glut and intense price competition that further reduces costs globally.
Since 2010, the costs of solar PV, wind, and batteries have fallen by between 60% and 90%, a trend largely attributed to China's rapid increase in production volume. Not surprisingly, more than 90% of newly commissioned wind and solar facilities globally in 2024 were cheaper than the cheapest available form of fossil fuel generation.
While China’s clean energy manufacturing boom has been blamed for distorting the global markets, it’s proving to be good for the environment. The affordability of these technologies enables faster adoption, particularly in emerging markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, many of which are now leapfrogging traditional fossil fuel infrastructure. Clean energy goods exported from China in 2024 alone are estimated to cut importing countries' carbon emissions by 1% annually, with the cumulative lifetime emissions savings from these products reaching an estimated 4.0 GtCO2. Indeed, the IEA has forecast that global emissions will level off at 38 metric gigatons per year in 2040, significantly lower than the 46 metric gigatons it had projected in 2015. And, that’s if countries continue doing business as usual: the IEA says the figure could drop to just 33 metric gigatons per year if countries follow through on their pledges.
That said, a second Trump presidency is expected to significantly set back global climate goals, primarily by weakening U.S. domestic climate policy and disengaging from international climate efforts. President Trump has already re-submitted the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which will formally take effect in 2026. This action removes the U.S., the world's second-largest emitter, from the primary global climate cooperation framework and could reduce global trust in U.S. commitments, potentially encouraging other climate-laggard nations to stymie their own efforts.
The administration has targeted key provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), halting billions in clean energy tax credits and loans for wind and solar projects, and has also revoked an order setting a 50% electric vehicle target for 2030. Meanwhile, the U.S. is expected to cease or significantly reduce its contributions to international climate funds, such as the Climate Loss and Damage Fund, resulting in less financing available for developing economies to address climate change and adopt cleaner energy measures.
Overall, analysts predict that Trump's policies, which focus on maximizing oil and gas production and rolling back environmental regulations, could result in the U.S. emitting an additional 4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide by 2030 compared to previous projections.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
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