Even if it maintains the view of global oversupply this year, Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecast for the fourth quarter by $6 per barrel as inventories in advanced economies remain low.
The Wall Street bank lifted its Q4 2026 price estimate by $6 to $60 per barrel Brent Crude and made the same upward revision of its WTI Crude price outlook, to $56 per barrel at year-end, on the back of lower-than-expected stocks in the OECD countries, according to a Sunday note cited by Reuters.
Early on Monday in Asian trade, the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude was trading 1% lower at $65 per barrel, and Brent Crude was down 1% at $71 a barrel amid uncertainties over the U.S. trade policies after the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s so-called retaliatory tariffs.
Oil prices have jumped in recent weeks on the prospect of a U.S. military campaign in Iran.
The investment bank’s base-case scenario continues to assume there would be no supply disruptions related to Iran.
Goldman’s supply-demand balance for 2026 remains at a surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd), assuming no major supply disruptions and no peace reached in the Russia-Ukraine talks.
Goldman lifted its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $60 and WTI to $56 per barrel, citing lower-than-expected OECD stock levels.
The bank still projects a 2.3 million bpd surplus in 2026, assuming no major supply disruptions.
OPEC+ may resume production increases in 2026 amid limited inventory builds and shifting market dynamics.
Lower OECD inventories, however, have prompted the bank to hike its year-end oil price forecast.
Last month, Goldman Sachs said that WTI could drop all the way to $50 per barrel towards the end of this year, amid expected excess supply that would put pressure on benchmarks.
OPEC+ could reinstate production increases in the second quarter of 2026, considering the lack of meaningful builds in OECD stocks so far this year, the bank said on Sunday.
Reports emerged earlier this month that the OPEC+ alliance is leaning toward resuming production increases from April following a pause in output hikes in the first quarter.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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