After a volatile run of monthly reports, June's labour data here in Canada was relatively calm with little change in employment reported (-400) and the economy retaining virtually all the 95,000 jobs gained in May.
Figures released this morning by Statistics Canada also said June's unchanged level followed back-to-back gains in April and May, meaning that the economy more than recaptured the 25,700 jobs lost in the first quarter by a significant margin with employment rising by 107,500.
June's steady print surprised forecasts that looked for a decline in employment of 7,500 following the second largest monthly gain on record reported in May.
Experts at RBC Economics forecast that the employment would increase by 5,000 in the month. The unemployment rate held at 7.1% and stayed in the range established since November. Private sector employment fell by 5,300 in June following the 94,600 surge recorded in May.
Self-employment increased by 4,000 and public sector employment inched up by 1,000. Unlike the sharp jump in full-time employment of 76,700 in May, full time jobs were cut to the tune of 32,400 in June. This was offset by a 32,200 increase in part-time employment. In the second quarter, full-time employment grew by a total of 80,300 while part-time employment increased by 26,800.
"With labour markets continuing to operate slightly below capacity," the country's biggest bank concludes, "the Bank of Canada unlikely to materially alter their policy stance when (it meets) on July 17. Rather, it was consistent with an economy that emerged from 2012's soft patch with further employment gains likely to keep downward pressure on the unemployment rate, sowing the seeds for an eventual tightening in monetary policy."
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