Canadians are more optimistic about the economy than they were two years ago, according to the latest Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index. But that confidence may begin to wane, if the government shutdown in the United States continues.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index tracks Canadian confidence in the economy and in their own personal finances weekly. During the last full week in September, 21% of Canadians thought they were better off compared to a year ago when it came to their personal finances. That was unchanged from September 2011.
Twenty-seven per cent said they were worse off, up three points from two years ago. In all, 51% of Canadians said their personal finances were the same compared to a year ago, that's only a three-point drop from September 2011.
But the real change was when respondents were asked if in the next six months the Canadian economy will become stronger or weaker.
All told, 22% said the economy will become stronger. That's up 16 points from 2011. A proportion of 17% thought the economy will get weaker, that's down 22 points from 2011, while 57% said there would be no change in the next six months, up 15 points.
The Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index is based on weekly measurements. This one ended Sept. 27, 2013. It is a random telephone (both cell and landline) survey of 1,000 Canadians, using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week. It is accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The 2011 statistics are also from the Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index, but are from an online survey conducted comprised of a representative online sample of 1,200 Canadians. There is no margin of error.
The latest tracking numbers show consumer confidence is up right now, but it is still vulnerable to outside forces, including the partial shutdown of the government in the U.S.
Nanos said in 2011 confidence numbers were low because "the world was in the grips of the euro-zone crisis, as a result Canadians became quite jittery." Even though the debt crisis in Europe is far from over, fear and attention in the media has subsided, and confidence in the economy has risen.
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