Limited price pressures in Sept.: StatsCan

The unadjusted all-items Canadian Consumer Price Index index rose 0.2% on a month-over-month basis in September and the annual inflation rate held at 1.1%. Figures released this morning by Statistics Canada also show that, on a seasonally adjusted basis, consumer prices were 0.2% higher than in August.

The Bank of Canada's core measure rose 0.2% on an unadjusted basis and was up 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Relative to a year earlier, the Bank’s core rate was 1.3%, matching August's gain.

The 0.2% gain in core prices, on an unadjusted basis, in September, reflected stronger women's clothing prices (+4.8%), passenger vehicles prices (1.0%) and tuition fees (+3.1%).

The monthly rise in overall clothing prices was 2.3% though this paled in comparison to the 4.3% rise in September 2012 and left the measure up just 0.4% on a year-over-year basis. Health and personal care costs were lower than a year earlier due to lower prices for personal care supplies and both non-prescribed and prescribed medicines which left the measure 0.1% below its year ago level.

Inflation pressures were benign in the third quarter with the headline CPI rate averaging 1.2% and the Bank of Canada's core measure 1.3%. Price increases were modest among most of the key areas with two components, health and personal care and home furnishings prices, posting declines of 0.5% and 0.6% respectively.

The quickest increases came in the form of rising tuition fees (+3.1% though still down from 3.7% in 2012) with clothing and motor vehicles prices increasing at a faster pace than in the first half of the year. Gasoline prices posted an average 2.6% year over year gain in the third quarter.

So far in 2013, Canada's inflation rate averaged 0.9% with the core rate at 1.3%. Against this backdrop, the Bank of Canada is likely to maintain the policy rate at 1.0% at next week's interest rate policy meeting

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