Canada's economy is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2016, with British Columbia to lead the country in growth, according to an outlook by the Conference Board of Canada.
The think-tank predicts four provinces will have a Gross Domestic Product growth rate of more than 2% — B.C., Ontario, Manitoba and Prince Edward Island.
The Conference Board paints a picture of two-speed Canadian economy, with resource-dependent provinces in recession or barely growing, while most of the rest of the country strengthens as manufacturing exports grow.
British Columbia is expected to be the fastest-growing province for the next two years — with its economy expanding by 3% in both 2016 and 2017. While the mining sector is weak, strength in forestry, construction, transportation, and the real estate industry will power its growth.
Ontario's GDP is forecast to rise by 2.8% in 2016 and by 2.6% in 2017, primarily because of export growth in the automotive sector. The low dollar and Toronto's rising housing market are combining to boost economic conditions in the province.
Manitoba will grow by 2.1% in 2016 and 2.6% in 2017 as its agricultural sector and services continue to grow.
In Prince Edward Island, there has been growth in housing and in manufacturing that will result in 2.3% growth in 2016 and 1.7% in 2017.
The optimism in these four provinces is offset by a 2% contraction in Alberta, where disappointing oil prices and the impact of the Fort McMurray fires will continue the recession that began last year.
Alberta's economy is expected to recover in 2017, partly as a result of the rebuilding of Fort McMurray.
New Brunswick's economy will shrink by 0.4% in 2016 because of weakening manufacturing, construction, and mining plus lacklustre growth in the services sector.
Saskatchewan has seen growth in agricultural sector, but mining has been hit hard by low commodity prices. It could growth by just 0.2% this year and 1.1% next year..
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