It could go down as one of the most severe recession the province of Alberta has ever faced.
A report released Monday by TD Economics says by the end of this year, Alberta's GDP is anticipated to have posted a 3% contraction in 2016, adding up to a 6.5% loss since the downturn started in 2014.
That's twice the magnitude of the average of the past four recessions to hit Alberta.
The current downturn — coming on the heels of the one in 2008-09 — is reminiscent of the two recessions Alberta weathered in 1982-83 and 1986, according to the authors.
"In each of these eras, the first of the two recessions … was part of a global economic crisis whereas the second … was more specifically attributable to weakness in the global oil market that delivered a nasty blow to the Alberta economy," the report says.
The current recession is also expected to last roughly two years, which would match the 1982-83 downturn as the longest in the post-war period.
However, when the current recession is considered in terms of its impact on labour markets, it is much milder than the one in the early 1980s, the report says.
The authors predict a 3% drop in employment from its 2015 peak to the end of this year, when the losses are expected to bottom out.
By contrast, the job losses in 1982-83 were twice the magnitude and the combined effect of that decade's two downturns kept Alberta's unemployment rate near 10% until almost 1990.
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