Canadian housing starts fell a worse-than-expected 9.2% to 167,900 annualized units in October,
from a downwardly-revised 185,000 in the prior month (previously 188,400). That’s the third straight monthly decline, or the fifth in the past six months, and marks the lowest level of activity since September 2009, when homebuilding was springing out of the recession. While October’s decline was larger than expected, the overall trend of softer construction activity is not—October seasonally adjusted home sales were 25% below peak levels seen at the end of 2009, and starts in recent months have cooled back in line with the estimated 175,000 rate of household formation. Single-unit starts continued to slide in October, falling 8.0%, while the more volatile multi-unit segment saw a 15.0% drop. Singles have now dropped 39.5% from their March peak, and are running 23.9% below year-ago levels—closer to the recession low than their heated spring level. Meantime, October’s drop also pulled multi-unit starts back below year-ago levels (-4.0%).
The regional performance was split in October, with Atlantic Canada seeing a solid increase
thanks to a large bounce-back in New Brunswick. However, all provinces in Central and Western
Canada saw lower levels of construction activity in the month, headlined by a hefty 22.9% drop in
Ontario—both singles (-6.7%) and multiples (-35.6%) fell in the province.
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