The decision by European Union foreign ministers to stop taking deliveries of crude oil from Iran might well represent a momentous change and a blow to Tehran.
But by most accounts such a move -- even in conjunction with a host of other punitive steps -- is insufficient to force Tehran to stop what the West says are efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
The 510,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil that the E.U. imports from Iran represent less than one-fifth of the more than 2.6 million bpd Iran ships out daily.
Still, what the West hopes is that the E.U.'s example will create pressure for Asia's energy-hungry economic giants to follow suit.
China, Japan, India, and South Korea account for a combined 53% of Iran's total exports. If they join the sanctions, there is little chance Iran's regime -- which depends on energy exports for nearly half its budget revenues -- could survive.
That makes the E.U.'s latest action a milestone on a still-long journey to muster economic pressure against Tehran, with no end in sight because nobody knows whether the Asian giants will join the campaign or not.
China gets 10% of its imported oil from Tehran. It also has important business interests in Iran, including projects to develop oil and gas fields and drilling work.
Beijing has repeatedly said sanctions will not resolve the nuclear issue and signaled that finding a substitute supplier is not on its agenda.
The other three biggest Asian importers of Iranian oil -- India, Japan, and South Korea -- are also reluctant but may be easier for the West to woo. Unlike China, which is America's biggest creditor, they are all to varying degrees U.S. allies.
India shows no signs of cutting back on Iranian oil. The country gets 11% of its crude oil from Iran, or 341,000 bpd, making Tehran its second-largest supplier.
Japan, a close U.S. ally gets 6% of its oil from Iran, or 251,000 bpd. It has signaled reluctance to halt those imports, though it might cut them back. When Japan's finance minister earlier this month said Japan would join sanctions, other officials raced to backtrack, indicating nothing is decided.
South Korea, which gets 7.5% of its crude from Iran, or 239,000 bpd, says it would be difficult for it to find alternative supplies quickly. Seoul is in bilateral discussions with Washington to find a compromise as it tries to maintain its energy security without alienating the U.S., its key trade partner.
All this suggests Western powers have much work ahead to re-route Iran's customers to other suppliers. The most obvious alternative is Saudi Arabia, which this week affirmed it has the capacity to fill any drop in the world's oil supply that may result from sanctions on Iran.
But Iran can equally be expected to do everything it can to hold onto its customers, including making it easier for them to stay ahead of the sanctions effort.
One expert says that while the most effective sanction on Tehran is Washington's ban on countries doing business with the Central Bank of Iran, even that is not foolproof.
Could some Asian countries play a cat-and-mouse game with Washington, observing U.S. bans to the letter but going around them in practice?
Tehran clearly hopes so. And that means Western capitals will continue to seek real commitments from their Asian partners to reduce Iranian oil imports
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