The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a preliminary summary of current employment statistics. In it, the CES revision to total nonfarm employment for March 2025 was -911,000.
The downward revision increases the odds of stagflation. This is a rare condition where economic growth slows, inflation is high, and unemployment is high. In August, the BLS reported that job creation was 22,000. It also revised June NFP down by 27,000 and July up by 6,000.
The 20+ Year Treasury Bill ETF (TLT) pulled back below the $90 level. It rallied from a low of $84 in May. The treasury bill market is pricing in higher odds of the Fed cutting rates later this month. The longer maturing debt is also falling in anticipation of the U.S. adding more to its debt.
Investors need to watch the DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP). UUP stock is holding up at around $27.25 - $27.50. However, gold (GLD) closed at $334.06, silver (SLV) closed at $37.18, and bitcoin closed at $111,140. Investors are cutting their exposure to US currency by holding those three assets.
Tariff uncertainties are hurting the currency. On Tuesday, the Supreme Court said it would fast-track the review of the legal challenge to President Trump’s tariffs. Courts may decide by this fall.
Treasury Secretary Bessent said that if courts ruled that tariffs were illegal, the government would need to refund just half of the tariff revenue to U.S. importers.
Rescinding the “reciprocal” tariffs would restore U.S. imports. That would strengthen the U.S. dollar.
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