On Monday, shares of ARCA biopharma (NASDAQ:ABIO) was absolutely pummeled, beaten down by a stunning 72% on phase 2b data of Gencaro for specific atrial fibrillation patients (those with hearth failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction) that failed to impress Wall Street even though ARCA said the trial data was sufficient to move its lead drug candidate forward. The problem in investors' eyes was that Gencaro failed to show superior efficacy - it only showed "comparable efficacy" - to the active control, Toprol-XL.
ARCA management took a different view, focusing on a trend supporting potential Gencaro superiority in U.S. patients for reducing recurrence of A-fib.
The caveat was that there was not enough patients in the trial for the trend to demonstrate statistical significance, although ARCA said that using Bayesian statistical modeling of predictive probability of success shows statistical significance could be achieved in a larger patient population.
The Westminster, Colorado-based biopharma said on Monday that it plans to hold a meeting with the FDA during the second quarter to review the data and discuss a late-stage development plan for Gencaro.
Maybe it took a day to set in that the drug isn't dead and that the trial wasn't a complete failure because shares rebounded sharply on Tuesday and are continuing to recoup some of the massive losses in Wednesday trading.
After closing at 45 cents on Monday from Friday's close at $1.60, shares bounced back 41% on Tuesday to close at 63 cents.
In Wednesday morning action, shares are still recovering, gaining another 41% to trade at 90 cents about one hour into the trading session.
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