The outlook for the American job market couldn't be murkier.
Snowstorms, big annual revisions and the end of benefits for the long-term unemployed could give a distorted picture of the job market when January's labor report comes out Friday.
Economists surveyed by CNNMoney are predicting 178,000 jobs were created last month. That would be a big improvement from December's shockingly low 74,000 jobs.
Meanwhile, they predict the unemployment rate will remain at 6.7%.
But wild cards like bad weather, yearly revisions and the end of federal jobless benefits, have economists on edge about their predictions.
Why all the uncertainty?
December was considered an 'aberration': Economists are still puzzled by last month's jobs report. Other data had shown the economy was strengthening, and then boom: The report suddenly showed December was the weakest month for job growth in nearly three years.
Some wonder: did the cold curb hiring? If weather is to blame, January might not be much better. Both the Polar Vortex and Atlanta's snow standstill struck last month. Frigid weather has been hitting virtually all major sectors of the economy, with manufacturers, real estate agents and auto dealers blaming weak sales on the cold temperatures.
Revisions could be huge: When the U.S. Labor Department releases a monthly jobs report, it typically revises the prior two months as well. Economists are expecting an upward revision to December's figures.
In addition, there are broader revisions coming this month. The jobs report comes from two surveys: one of 60,000 households, and the other of 145,000 businesses. This month, it will revise data from both surveys.
The first major revision accounts for the growing population and could alter the unemployment rate slightly.
The second comes from a more complete count of payrolls, and is expected to show 345,000 more jobs were added in 2013 than were originally counted.
Are the unemployed giving up? When Congress failed to extend emergency unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed, 1.3 million Americans suddenly stopped receiving checks at the end of December. What happened to these people?
If they continued looking for work -- as was required while receiving benefits -- they'll still be counted among America's nearly 10 million unemployed. But if they suddenly gave up their job searches, they wouldn't be counted and the unemployment rate could fall, according to experts.
As of December, only 62.8% of American adults participated in the labour force -- meaning they either had a job or were looking for one. That matches the lowest rate since 1978, but it could break a new 35-year low if the long-term unemployed are giving up hope.
