Optimists at Morgan Stanley, despite all the doom and gloom early this year, believe the American economy will not only withstand this global turmoil, it may keep growing until at least 2020. That would make the much-criticized recovery from the Great Recession the longest U.S. expansion in the post-war period.
Last week during the market mayhem Morgan Stanley reiterated its 2020 call, pointing to evidence that suggests the U.S. economic expansion isn't ready to call it quits just yet.
Here's a brief list of why:
Fundamentals look solid: The latest economic reports suggest the American economy continues to look like the best house in a bad neighborhood.
The U.S. added about 200,000 jobs a month in 2015, its second-best year of employment gains since 1999.
The labour strength is buoying consumer confidence, a powerful force in an economy that is mostly driven by consumer spending. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index averaged 92.9 last year, the highest since 2004. That's a big improvement from the 2008 low of 55.
That confidence is also driving home buying, which continues to rebound from the recession lows.
Fewer Americans are drowning in debt: Consumers have been hard at work repairing their balance sheets. Morgan Stanley notes that the amount of debt relative disposable income has come down a lot. It currently stands at about 106%, down from 135% in 2008.
The ratio of payments to after-tax income has slipped near the lowest levels of the past three decades.
In another sign of improved finances, the percentage of loan balances that are over 90 days delinquent recently fell below 4% for the first time since the recession ended.
Corporate America isn't overly exuberant: Morgan Stanley sees little evidence that CEOs have overextended themselves into a situation that will create a bubble. If anything, big companies are still reluctant to splurge on big items that drive growth.
For instance, capital spending declined in key sectors like energy, materials, telecom and consumer staples during the third quarter.
Morgan Stanley expects the ratio of capital spending-to-sales at S&P 1,500 companies to slip to 4.6% by the end of 2016, excluding energy and utilities. That metric stood at 6% and 9% before the last two recessions.
