Extreme weather caused by climate change is forecast to lower Canada's gross domestic
product (GDP) by 5.8% in 2100.
The lowered GDP forecast is included in a new report from the Parliamentary Budget Officer
(PBO) in Ottawa and assumes that countries around the world meet their commitments to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Higher temperatures and less rain are forecast to negatively impact Canada’s economy through
lower agricultural output, reduced labor productivity, rising coastal sea levels, and enhanced
property damage, according to the PBO report.
The 5.8% GDP decline assumes that climate commitments by governments around the world
are met in full, and on time, limiting the global rise in temperatures to 1.8 Celsius compared to
pre-industrial levels.
Planet Earth is on track to warm 2.1 Celsius to 2.9 Celsius by the end of this century compared
to pre-industrial levels, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change.
Countries, including Canada, that signed the 2015 Paris Agreement aim to keep that rise to 1.5
Celsius, although the United Nations said earlier this year that the goal is unlikely to be met.
If governments fail to meet their climate change commitments, Canada’s GDP would decline
6.6% by 2100, said the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s report.
