In the last few quiet trading sessions of 2025, stock markets faded somewhat. When markets open for 2026, two disconcerting themes will preoccupy investors.
The Supreme Court will issue a ruling on tariffs sometime soon. Ahead of expectations that courts will rule most tariffs illegal, the White House delayed tariff hikes for upholstered furniture, vanities, and kitchen cabinets by another year. Those items were supposed to face a 25% tariff. Still, the White House said it would let other countries negotiate on the tariff hike rates.
Before that, the U.S. said it would add new tariffs on China’s semiconductor industry. It would add duties on Chinese-made chips starting on June 23, 2027. This policy seemed to contradict allowing Nvidia (NVDA) to sell advanced AI server chips. However, the government would get a 25% cut in sales.
Watch the U.S. Dollar
In 2025, the U.S. dollar fell the most at rates not seen since 2017. Investors are pricing in the Federal Reserve to cut rates by more. Already, the central bank announced treasury bond purchases to support weak demand.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index lost around 8% in 2025. Looking ahead, rate cuts at the Fed’s January and March meetings might weaken the currency further this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends this year. Markets widely expect the U.S. President to appoint a Fed Chair willing to cut interest rates. That would further weaken the USD.
