A meeting between U.S. President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe this week in Tokyo may not seal one of the world's biggest trade pacts, but it could give it a much-needed boost.
A central element of Obama's strategic shift towards Asia, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) would connect a dozen Asia-Pacific economies by eliminating trade barriers and harmonizing regulations in a pact covering two-fifths of the world economy and a third of all global trade.
After four years of talks and missed deadlines, negotiators from several TPP countries say they hope Thursday's summit will lay the groundwork for tough concessions, including a possible easing in Japan's protectionist stance on beef, sugar, dairy and wheat — a step that could breathe into the struggling TPP.
The White House had hoped to complete the deal last year but has faced disagreements over barriers such as Japanese import duties on agricultural products. Tokyo is fighting to maintain import tariffs in five agricultural categories: rice, wheat, dairy, sugar, and beef and pork products.
Washington, meanwhile, has sought ways to protect U.S. car makers from their Japanese rivals.
Experts are looking for signs of concessions, especially from Japan given its staunch protection of its beef, sugar, dairy and wheat industries. Under one optimistic scenario, the leaders could announce they expect concrete outcomes soon, perhaps next month, when TPP negotiators meet in Vietnam.
A senior U.S. official said the summit would likely produce a statement giving a nudge for the negotiations to move to the next stage, a view shared by some industry groups.
The stakes are high for both Obama and Abe.
Failure to unveil a significant advance could stall the ambitious pact, undermining the trade-policy arm of Obama's so-called "pivot" of U.S. military, diplomatic and trade resources to the Asia-Pacific region.
An agreement between the United States and Japan is crucial for setting the tone for other countries engaged in the TPP: Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.
