The last thing the faltering European economy would appear to need right now is a sudden downturn in Germany, up until now the bloc's pillar of strength.
But a bout of German weakness may be precisely what is required to convince Chancellor Angela Merkel to loosen the fiscal reins at home and provide Europe with a dose of stimulus that struggling states like France and Italy have long been seeking.
For now, the top economic priority of Merkel's government is to deliver on its promise of a "schwarze Null" - a federal budget that is in the black, or fully balanced - in 2015.
That goal, spelled out in the coalition agreement struck last year between Merkel's conservatives and the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), is described by officials in Berlin as a political "holy grail" - an historic achievement that would carry huge benefits for both ruling partners if reached.
It is largely due to the constraints of this budget target that Merkel has repeatedly rebuffed calls at home and abroad for Berlin to splash out more public money on infrastructure.
But if the German economy, which contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter and may flatline in the third, continues to weaken into next year, Merkel could be forced to reverse course and step up public investment, as the European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have urged.
For now, the "schwarze Null" - or black zero - looks comfortably within reach.
With unemployment still hovering near post-reunification lows under 7%, tax revenues continue to flow into federal coffers at record rates.
Rock-bottom interest rates have sharply reduced the cost of borrowing in Germany, providing additional budget support. The Bundesbank estimates the German state saved 120 billion euros over the past seven years - including 37 billion euros last year - thanks to the drop in rates.
Still, recent German data has been unusually poor. This week industrial orders and output for the month of August posted their steepest falls since the height of the global financial crisis in 2009.
