July marks the 121st month of U.S. economic expansion arising out of the great financial crisis, making it the longest run on record going back to 1854.
This cycle starting in June 2009 breaks the record of 120 months of economic growth from March 1991 to March 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Perhaps because of the overhang of the housing crisis, this run has been weaker than past expansions in total. The cumulative total of quarterly Gross Domestic Product growth figures equals 25%, far lower than previous booms.
But despite some internal weakness, this expansion keeps trucking along, getting its latest boost from the Trump tax cut of 2018 along with a relaxation in business regulations, according to economists.
However, it now appears to need some help if it’s going to continue to rewrite the record books. The Atlanta Fed is pointing to just a 1.5% gain for the economy in the second quarter after a strong gain of 3.2% in the first quarter. Other surveys put the GDP tracking estimate at 1.8%.
All eyes will be on the jobs report on Friday for the state of the economy. Economists expect that 158,000 jobs were created in June south of the border, up sharply from the disappointing 75,000 in May. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%.
