Two new snapshots of the economy -- one showing a sharp slowdown in first-quarter economic output and the other a surge in weekly unemployment claims -- underscored the fragility of the recovery, its vulnerability to global shocks and the long road still ahead for millions of American workers.
Many analysts shrugged off the report that gross domestic product grew just 1.8% in the first part of the year -- down from 3.1% in the fourth quarter last year.
Economists said the slowdown was caused mostly by temporary factors such as the harsh winter weather and a surge in oil and food prices, which took a bite out of consumer spending and the nation's trade.
Officials at the Federal Reserve as well as many private forecasters expect GDP growth to bounce back to 3% or higher in the rest of the year.
But that depends partly on an easing of global economic and political problems, particularly the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa that is behind the spike in petroleum prices. Such a reduction of tensions is far from certain. And new shocks are also possible, given the continuing upheavals in the region and elsewhere.
The latest GDP figures were close to analysts' expectations, but the jobless claims report was an unwelcome surprise. With hiring picking up in the last two months, experts predicted a drop in new filings for jobless benefits.
Instead claims rose for the second time in three weeks, to the highest level since late January.
These figures are volatile from week to week, and some seasonal and temporary factors may have played a role in the latest jump, including the Easter holiday and the disaster in Japan, which disrupted delivery of parts in the auto and the electronics industries.
Still, the report provided another discouraging sign for an economy that is struggling with nearly 9% unemployment nearly two years after the official end of the recession.
Even before Thursday's report, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other economists weren't particularly encouraging that the jobless rate would come down quickly. Bernanke said Wednesday that high unemployment and the slow pace of the jobs recovery were key factors behind the Fed's continued easy-credit policies.
The damaging effects of higher oil and commodity prices were evident in the GDP report from the Commerce Department. Personal consumer spending, which had risen an impressive 4% in the fourth quarter, slid back down 2.7% in the first three months this year.
