U.S. initial unemployment insurance claims rose 4,000 to 367,000 in the week ending September 29, retracing only a small portion of the previous week’s 22,000 drop to an upwardly revised 363,000 (initially reported as 359,000). The level of initial claims in the latest week was slightly better than market expectations going into the report for a larger increase to 370,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims (which better controls for weekly volatility) held steady at the upwardly revised 375,000 seen in the previous week (initially reported as 374,000). Continuing claims were unchanged at 3,281,000 in the week ending September 22.
If the current level of claims were sustained, according to experts, it would augur well for some strengthening in October payrolls; however, today’s report is unlikely to impact expectations ahead of tomorrow’s official non-farm payroll employment report for September since the payroll survey is conducted in the middle of the reference month.
The amalgam of labour market data for September point to continued growth in employment in the month, though the pace likely remained fairly subdued.
Said analysts at RBC Economics, "we expect that the payroll report will show that the U.S. economy added 100,000 total jobs in September following the modest gain of 96,000 seen in August."
