U.S. initial claims fell 27,000 to 341,000 in the week ending February 9 from an upwardly revised 368,000 level the previous week. Figures released this morning by the U.S. Labor Department also showed the level of claims in the latest week was well below market expectations for a decline to 360,000.
The four-week moving average of initial claims ticked up to 352,500 from 351,000 the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending February 2 fell 130,000 to 3,114,000.
A department of Labor spokesperson noted that the storm that buried large portions of the east coast in snow at the end of last week "appeared to have little effect on the broader claims data".
That comment suggests that the lower-than-expected level of initial claims for unemployment insurance may be more representative of the underlying pace of layoffs than the other significant swings seen in recent months that were attributed to distortions related to Hurricane Sandy and difficulties with seasonal adjustments at the end of 2012 and early this year. To that extent, these data point to ongoing improvements in labour market conditions.
Said experts at RBC Economics, "we expect that job gains will be such that the unemployment rate will continue to gradually decline over the forecast horizon, though it will likely remain above the (Federal Reserve's) 6.5% threshold into 2015."
