Goldman Sachs expects the global oil market to swing into a surplus of 1.9 million barrels daily next year as a result of OPEC+’s output cut unwinding and producers in North and South America also ramping up production.
“While a full 1.65 mb/d unwind is plausible, we assume the group will leverage its flexibility to pause quota increases from January 2026 under our assumption that OECD commercial stocks start rising noticeably in 2025 Q4,” the investment bank’s commodity analysts said in a note on Sunday, following the news that OPEC+ will continue adding barrels to its collective output after years of restraining supply.
“Although we revise up our 2026 surplus to 1.9 mb/d (vs. 1.7 mb/d prior), we assume only slightly faster OECD commercial stocks builds in Q4 2025- Q4 2026,” Goldman also said, as quoted by Reuters.
OECD crude oil stocks have been trending below the five-year average so far this year, providing oil glut skeptics with an argument in defense of their skepticism. The inventories have been in decline for much of the year, with additions rather weak. This, however, has had no effect on bearish sentiment among traders and forecasters alike.
Based on this expectation of a glut of close to 2 million barrels daily, Goldman Sachs predicted oil will next year fall to between $53 and $56 per barrel, allowing, however, for higher prices by saying “Risks to our 2025-2026 price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside.”
Brent crude was trading at $66.31 per barrel at the time of writing, as the renewed prospects of more anti-Russian sanctions offset the immediate impact of OPEC+’s agreement to continue boosting production, announced on Sunday. Goldman suggested in its note that the OPEC+ decision demonstrated acknowledgment of the lower-than-average OECD oil stocks.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
