Oil flows through the Middle East have staged an impressive rebound, with export volumes recovering to near pre-war levels even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal. Standard Chartered estimates crude and condensate exports from the Gulf, excluding Iran and including bypass routes such as Fujairah and the Red Sea, reached roughly 16.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, broadly back to pre-war volumes.
But only 60% of those barrels crossed the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 83% before the war. Standard Chartered says the numbers show resilience rather than normalization: exporters have found ways to move the oil, but they are doing it less efficiently and at considerably higher cost.
The system has been forced to use more complex workarounds, particularly a vessel-intensive chain of ship-to-ship (STS) transfers. Shuttle tankers are increasingly moving crude through Hormuz before transferring it to larger vessels in the Gulf of Oman, while exporters are also making greater use of pipelines and ports that bypass the strait.
The southern route along the Omani coast has become an important route for shuttle vessels moving through Hormuz. Standard Chartered says STS capacity appears saturated, vessel utilization remains inefficient, voyage times have lengthened and both freight and security costs remain elevated.
Saudi Arabia perhaps best illustrates both the success and limits of this adaptation. Following the early-September damage to the East-West pipeline, exports shifted sharply to the east coast. Standard Chartered estimates total Saudi exports rebounded to roughly 6.9 million bpd in September from 2.45 million bpd in August, with 19 VLCCs transiting Hormuz in one week alone. The restart of the East-West pipeline and Yanbu loadings has restored another route to market and reduced the immediate risk of shutting in production, although pipeline throughput remains below nameplate capacity and exposed to further attacks. The workarounds are also expensive, with reports of discounts of up to $9 per barrel on cargoes loaded offshore Oman to compensate for the added logistical costs.
The recovery in physical flows has reduced the probability of the most extreme shortage scenarios and should gradually remove some of the scarcity premium in oil prices. But those barrels are moving at higher cost, with longer voyage times, heavier use of tankers and less spare capacity in the logistics system. Standard Chartered says the improvement is bearish compared with a market pricing a prolonged physical supply loss, but does not justify a return to pre-war risk premiums. Exporters have shown they can move far more crude than many expected, but the system has less room to absorb another major disruption. Hormuz oil flows.pdfPDF
The tactical success of Gulf exporters has also altered regional dynamics. Seaborne crude exports from Iran fell to near zero in September, down from roughly 1.7 million bpd before the war, after the U.S. naval blockade sharply curtailed Tehran’s ability to move crude through Hormuz. Consequently, Iran’s ability to weaponize its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz is breaking down, though this increases the risk of unpredictable military escalation.
Iran remains defiant and reiterated Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States fulfills seven conditions contained in the June interim agreement. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said separately that Tehran’s latest proposal could lead to the strait reopening within seven days if Washington accepts Iran’s terms.
Tehran has denied reports that it offered international nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. Araghchi has said Iran hopes Washington will pursue diplomacy, but warned that the country is better prepared than before to respond if the U.S. opts for further military action.
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
