Samarium sells for as much as 346 times more in North America than in China, and that price is just a preview of what American industry would pay the day Beijing stops exporting.
Jet engines, industrial motors, EVs, wind turbines and medical scanners all run on rare earth magnets, and most U.S. manufacturers still buy theirs from China, at Chinese prices.
Outside China, dysprosium costs five times as much and yttrium more than 100 times as much. Japan has already learned what happens when the Chinese supply slows: its government is asking Washington for help before its yttrium runs out at year-end.
REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is positioning itself to profit from one of the most serious shortages developing in America's rare earth supply chain, and it's a shortage that billions of dollars in new mining and magnet manufacturing investments won't solve on their own.
Washington has begun intervening to protect domestic production from Chinese price competition. Under its 10-year agreement with MP Materials, the Pentagon guarantees a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr, making up the difference when benchmark prices fall below that level. The arrangement protects MP Materials against the price collapses that have historically threatened Western rare earth producers.
But in the meantime, investment in new mines and magnet factories is accelerating, creating an increasingly urgent question: who will supply the rare earth metals and alloys needed to connect the two?
That's where REalloys is concentrating its efforts. For magnet manufacturers, rare earth oxides first have to be reduced to metal, then melted with other materials and cast into the alloy strip that feeds the magnet line.
China controls more than 90% of the world's 210,000 tonnes of capacity for that step, according to Canaccord Genuity, whose analysts call metallization "a major blind spot in western supply chain development." The strip casters that make the alloy now take up to two years to deliver, and Canaccord's channel checks found that buying them from China is "impossible under current export controls."
Canaccord expects magnet plant capacity outside China to more than triple to about 70,000 tonnes by 2030. Non-Chinese metal and alloy capacity, however, is expected to reach just 38,000 tonnes over the same period, roughly half of what those new magnet plants will need.
Every Western magnet line that opens without its own metal supply will have to buy from China or compete with other Western plants for limited alternative supplies.
Samarium sells for as much as 346 times more in North America than in China, and that price is just a preview of what American industry would pay the day Beijing stops exporting.
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Jet engines, industrial motors, EVs, wind turbines and medical scanners all run on rare earth magnets, and most U.S. manufacturers still buy theirs from China, at Chinese prices.
Outside China, dysprosium costs five times as much and yttrium more than 100 times as much. Japan has already learned what happens when the Chinese supply slows: its government is asking Washington for help before its yttrium runs out at year-end.
REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is positioning itself to profit from one of the most serious shortages developing in America's rare earth supply chain, and it's a shortage that billions of dollars in new mining and magnet manufacturing investments won't solve on their own.
Washington has begun intervening to protect domestic production from Chinese price competition. Under its 10-year agreement with MP Materials, the Pentagon guarantees a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for NdPr, making up the difference when benchmark prices fall below that level. The arrangement protects MP Materials against the price collapses that have historically threatened Western rare earth producers.
But in the meantime, investment in new mines and magnet factories is accelerating, creating an increasingly urgent question: who will supply the rare earth metals and alloys needed to connect the two?
That's where REalloys is concentrating its efforts. For magnet manufacturers, rare earth oxides first have to be reduced to metal, then melted with other materials and cast into the alloy strip that feeds the magnet line.
China controls more than 90% of the world's 210,000 tonnes of capacity for that step, according to Canaccord Genuity, whose analysts call metallization "a major blind spot in western supply chain development." The strip casters that make the alloy now take up to two years to deliver, and Canaccord's channel checks found that buying them from China is "impossible under current export controls."
Canaccord expects magnet plant capacity outside China to more than triple to about 70,000 tonnes by 2030. Non-Chinese metal and alloy capacity, however, is expected to reach just 38,000 tonnes over the same period, roughly half of what those new magnet plants will need.
Every Western magnet line that opens without its own metal supply will have to buy from China or compete with other Western plants for limited alternative supplies.
ING has warned that China's grip may outlast this decade because the bottleneck is "industrial rather than geological." American manufacturers buy about 48,000 tonnes of rare earth magnets a year, and in 2025 the U.S. made just 300 tonnes.
REalloys already operates a facility in Euclid, Ohio, producing rare earth metals, alloys and magnet materials. The company says it has the only operating heavy rare earth metallization capability in North America, giving it an early position in the industrial process that Canaccord expects to become increasingly scarce.
The company has also secured non-Chinese feedstock to support its expansion. It holds rights to approximately 80% of the Saskatchewan Research Council's expanded output, including roughly 525 tonnes of NdPr metal annually, alongside dysprosium and terbium products. It also has a 15-year offtake agreement covering 15% of Phase 1 production from Critical Metals Corp.’s (NASDAQ: CRML) Tanbreez project in Greenland.
Under a Defense Logistics Agency contract, it is designing a 300-tonne-per-year facility for samarium and gadolinium metal, two materials with no established commercial production in the United States. Samarium currently commands a price premium of as much as 346 times its Chinese price in North America, illustrating the extraordinary economics of supply outside Beijing's control.
REalloys reported $122.4 million in cash at the end of June and says its Saskatchewan and metallization expansions are fully funded. With Western magnet manufacturing capacity projected to grow far faster than non-Chinese metal production, REalloys is building capacity in the part of the supply chain where manufacturers could face some of their toughest shortages.
The Next Wave of Rare Earth Demand Could Dwarf the Last
By 2035, the world could need 365,000 tonnes of rare earth magnets a year. And Canaccord Genuity has just raised that forecast by another 15%, as EVs, data centers, drones and humanoid robots push demand beyond its earlier projections.
The bank expects global NdFeB magnet demand to grow 7.3% annually, with EV sales more than doubling from 23.5 million this year to 52 million in 2035.
Canaccord analyst Reg Spencer has also pointed to the growing demand from data centers, e-bikes, scooters and drones. Drones account for only about 1% of forecast demand, but Ukraine and Russia alone were estimated to produce some 9 million military drones, and Canaccord acknowledges that its estimates may prove conservative.
And Canaccord may still be underestimating one of the biggest emerging sources of demand: humanoid robots. Canaccord models humanoid robot deliveries growing 45% annually to 2.5 million units by 2035, while Tesla is reportedly preparing an Optimus production line designed for 1 million robots a year. Global EV sales rose more than 4,600% between 2014 and 2024, demonstrating how quickly a new source of magnet demand can expand.
If robots follow anything close to that trajectory, today's magnet forecasts could prompt another major upward revision.
Independent McKinsey research also projects annual demand growth of approximately 8.8% for dysprosium and terbium, two heavy rare earths essential to high-performance magnets.
Canaccord expects the NdPr market to run a roughly 7% deficit this year, with shortages continuing through 2028. New mines and refineries in Australia, Malawi, Brazil and Utah, alongside Lynas' expansions, could bring the market roughly into balance between 2029 and 2031. But the deficit is projected to return and widen to 10% by 2035, while dysprosium and terbium face a projected 12% shortfall.
The International Energy Agency independently projects a 50% increase in demand for magnet rare earths outside China by 2035 and warns that non-Chinese metallization and magnet manufacturing capacity will remain severely inadequate even if all announced projects proceed. Every new magnet factory will need a reliable source of rare earth metals and alloys, and the companies capable of supplying those materials outside China are entering a market where demand is expected to outgrow available production.
The broader race to secure critical minerals is already reshaping the world's largest mining companies. Copper and lithium producers are expanding operations and investing in supply chains essential to electrification, batteries and advanced manufacturing. Although these materials serve different purposes from rare earth magnets, the investments demonstrate just how much industrial capacity the West is trying to build as demand accelerates.
BHP Group (NYSE: BHP) is one of the largest beneficiaries of the global push for electrification, with its copper operations spanning Chile, Australia and Peru. The mining giant produced approximately 1.95 million tonnes of copper in fiscal 2026, while its copper division generated $18.2 billion in underlying EBITDA, up nearly 48% from the previous year. Its Escondida operation in Chile remains one of the world's most important copper mines, supplying a metal essential to electricity grids, industrial motors and data center infrastructure. With BHP anticipating continued long-term growth in copper demand, its expanding focus on the metal reflects the scale of investment required to support an increasingly electrified global economy.
Teck Resources (NYSE: TECK) is another major player strengthening its position in critical minerals, particularly copper and zinc. The Canadian miner operates the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile, Highland Valley Copper in Canada, and holds an interest in Peru's Antamina mine. In its latest third-quarter results, Teck reported C$2.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA, nearly double the previous year's level, supported by record copper prices and stronger operational performance. Copper production increased 11% year-over-year to 115,700 tonnes. The company is also pursuing a merger with Anglo American, a transaction designed to create one of the world's leading copper producers and significantly expand its presence in the global critical-minerals market.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) sits at the center of America's copper supply chain, with major mining operations across the United States, South America and Indonesia. Its Morenci operation in Arizona and Grasberg mining complex in Indonesia are among the industry's most significant assets. Freeport produced 832 million pounds of copper during the third quarter of 2026, alongside 234,000 ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum. The company is also advancing copper recovery technologies and potential expansions in the Americas as demand grows from electricity infrastructure, data centers and industrial manufacturing. Its scale demonstrates the importance of securing reliable domestic and allied supplies of materials critical to modern industry.
Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) provides another perspective on the critical-minerals race through its position in the global lithium industry. The company operates lithium resources and processing facilities across Chile, Australia and the United States, supplying materials used in electric vehicle batteries and energy storage systems. Albemarle reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.7 billion, up 31% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 155% to $858 million, supported by stronger lithium pricing and improved operating performance. Its operations at Chile's Salar de Atacama and Australia's Greenbushes and Wodgina projects illustrate the geographical reach of the global battery supply chain and the importance of securing both mineral resources and processing capabilities.
For REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY), the opportunity grows with every new magnet factory that comes online outside China. Those factories will need a dependable supply of rare earth metals and alloys, and Canaccord's forecasts suggest there won't be nearly enough to go around.
REalloys has an operating facility in Ohio, has secured feedstock for expansion, and has the financing to pursue what it says will be the largest heavy rare earth metallization facility outside China and the first commercial-scale heavy rare earth metallization platform in the Western Hemisphere. If Canaccord's demand forecasts prove accurate, REalloys is building capacity in exactly the part of the supply chain where the next decade's shortages could be most severe.
By. Michael Scott
