- Trump dials back China rhetoric.
- BoC Business outlook Survey on tap
- US opens little changed from Friday.
USDCAD open: 1.4032, overnight range 1.4006-1.4036 close, 1.4021, WTI 56.89, Gold 4253.99
The Canadian dollar was confined in a tight band but trading with a bearish tilt. The highlight today will be the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook and Consumer Surveys, both expected to hint at rising inflation pressures.
Traders will also be looking ahead to Friday’s release of September CPI data from the U.S., assuming the Bureau of Labor Statistics can bring back enough furloughed staff to process the numbers.
WTI crude fluctuated between 56.58 and 57.44, hovering near the lower end of that range in early New York trading. Sentiment remains split between optimism over a potential U.S.–China trade agreement and growing concerns about a supply glut, with the latter currently dominating the market mood.
President Trump appeared to soften his stance on China trade policy, saying relations were improving and that maintaining 100% tariffs was not realistic. He listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the key issues between Washington and Beijing. Treasury Secretary Bessent added that officials from both countries plan to meet in Malaysia for further discussions.
Markets are looking toward Friday’s scheduled release of US CPI data, assuming the report isn’t postponed again.
Asian equity markets started the week on a positive note, buoyed by optimism over US-China trade talks and political developments in Japan. The Topix index jumped 2.46%, the ASX 200 gained 0.41%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rallied 2.42%, erasing its prior losses.
As of 7:35 am, Germany’s DAX climbed 1.12%, the FTSE 100 added 0.35%, and France’s CAC-40 was little changed. S&P 500 futures edged up 0.27%, the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered at 98.56, the 10-year Treasury yield was steady near 4.013%, and gold traded around 4256.41.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1652-1.1672 range, consolidating last Friday’s losses after S&P Global Ratings cut France’s sovereign rating to A+ from AA- due to budget strains. Eurozone data releases were largely ignored, leaving intraday sentiment mildly bullish while prices hold above 1.1640.
GBPUSD fluctuated between 1.3405 and 1.3443, with traders content to wait for Wednesday’s data on inflation, producer prices, and retail prices. The broader range of 1.3330-1.3530 remains intact for now.
USDJPY bounced between 150.20 and 151.20 amid improved US-China tone and political shifts in Tokyo. Sanae Takaichi is expected to become Japan’s next Prime Minister, a development markets see as positive for fiscal stimulus and loose monetary policy. Trump’s friendlier comments toward China and lower US yield expectations limited further USD gains.
AUDUSD moved in a 0.6489-0.6515 range, finding some support from better Chinese GDP figures and renewed optimism over trade negotiations.
