- Canadian employment data and Michigan Consumer Sentiment ahead.
- Global equities trading lower
- US dollar opens mixed compared to yesterday’s close
USDCAD open: 1.4118, overnight range 1.4111-1.4126, close 1.4119, WTI 60.13, Gold 4008.83
The Canadian dollar traded sideways albeit with a negative bias as traders digested the implications for FX from the latest equity market sell-off.
The October employment picture is on display today. Canada is forecast to have shed about 2,500 jobs, a sharp reversal from the 60,400 increase reported in September, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 7.1 percent.
In the US, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is projected to edge down to 53.2 from 53.6, reflecting persistent caution among households.
Federal Reserve officials had a lot to say yesterday. Governor Stephen Miran argued for faster progress toward neutral rates through a series of 50-basis-point cuts, but Governor Michael Barr pushed back, warning that inflation still needs more attention. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack echoed that caution, saying policy should remain moderately restrictive until price pressures ease.
Asian equity markets ended the session in the red, led by a 0.92 percent slide in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, a 0.42 percent loss in Japan’s TOPIX, and a 0.66 percent dip in Australia’s ASX 200.
As of 7:30 a.m. ET, Europe was following suit, with the DAX down 0.85%, the CAC-40 off 0.62% and the FTSE 100 lower by 0.68%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.28% while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 99.67. The 10-year Treasury yield is 4.097%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1530-1.1557 range, supported by a softer greenback. The single currency’s advance remains corrective as long as it stays below 1.1630, the descending trendline from September. Germany’s latest trade data showed exports up 1.4 percent m/m in September, while imports rose 3.1 percent.
GBPUSD moved defensively within a 1.3095-1.3142 band. Sterling gained some ground after the Bank of England held rates steady, though upside momentum stalled around 1.3150. Markets are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut for next month. The Halifax House Price Index rose 1.9 percent y/y over the three months ending in October, beating the 1.45 percent forecast.
USDJPY fluctuated between 152.82 and 153.54 as traders searched for direction following this week’s 154.50 high. Yen demand linked to expectations of a new fiscal stimulus was tempered by a decline in rate-cut bets for the Bank of Japan. Weak household spending (-1.8 percent y/y vs a -2.5 percent forecast) added to the cautious tone.
AUDUSD held in a 0.6468-0.6492 range, consolidating earlier losses. The currency was weighed down by soft Chinese trade data and mild risk aversion spilling from AI-related equity selling.
