- US nonfarm payrolls on tap
- WTI oil prices jump by 3.83% overnight.
- The US dollar remains bid against the major currencies.
USDCAD open: 1.3661, overnight range 1.3645-1.3679, close 1.3675, WTI 83.98, Gold 5091.42
The Canadian dollar is has had a choppy week but remained firmly entrenched in its well-established range and open in NY today, where it opened on Monday. The Loonie is getting the benefit from higher crude prices and because it is a proxy to the US dollar.
WTI surged 3.83% overnight, climbing from 78.26 to 85.94 where it is trading in New York today. The sharp disruption to crude shipments from the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers has fuelled fears of a supply shortfall, leaving WTI higher by roughly 28.71% over the course of the week
The US monthly employment report is due today, with economists expecting nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 60,000 while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%. A result along those lines would reinforce the view that the Federal Reserve has little incentive to rush into cutting interest rates.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin made the case for keeping interest rates steady, noting that last year’s policy easing was driven by rising concerns about the labour market and easing worries about inflation. In recent months, however, incoming data has suggested the balance has shifted.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly wants to place China’s crude purchases on the agenda for the upcoming Trump–Xi Jinping meeting. His objective is to encourage Beijing to buy more American oil rather than sourcing supplies from countries viewed as hostile to US interests.
Asian equity markets finished the session higher but still posted weekly losses. Japan’s Topix rose 0.39% on the day but remains down 4.17% for the week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 1.72% but is still lower by 2.61% over the same period. Australia’s ASX 200 was the regional laggard, falling 1.00% overnight and leaving it down 3.53% for the week.
As of 7:15 am, European stock markets are firmly in negative territory. Germany’s DAX has dropped 0.93%, France’s CAC 40 has fallen 1.14% and the UK’s FTSE 100 is down 0.69%. S&P 500 futures are lower by 0.56%, and the 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.175% this morning.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1566–1.1622 range and is hovering near the lower end of the band in early New York trading, down 0.32% overnight and 1.90% for the week. The single currency was weighed down after Eurozone Q4 GDP rose just 0.2%, missing the 0.3% forecast, while the annual reading slowed to 1.2% from the previous 1.4%.
GBPUSD moved within a 1.3318–1.3380 range and is close to the session low in New York. It has been a volatile week for sterling, which has bounced between 1.3253 and 1.3403 as broader US dollar sentiment dictated the direction of trading.
USDJPY traded quietly in a 157.39–157.99 band, supported by the combination of rising US Treasury yields and firm oil prices.
AUDUSD ranged between 0.6990 and 0.7048 and is sitting near the session low ahead of today’s US nonfarm payrolls report.
