- Traders tempering optimism around Iran peace deal
- Oil prices consolidating losses
- The US dollar trading slightly lower against the majors.
USDCAD open: 1.3590, overnight range 1.3578-1.3623, close 1.3620, WTI 92.98, Gold 4,727.32.
The Canadian dollar rose slightly after Improved global risk sentiment nudged the US dollar modestly lower overnight. Iran is reviewing the latest US peace proposal and is expected to respond today.
Trump’s green light for the Keystone Light pipeline and speculation that the Carney government will introduce policies aimed at fast-tracking energy development have done little to boost the Canadian dollar. Traders remain sceptical because those projects are still years away from becoming reality. Cenovus’s CEO echoed that view, arguing that Canada’s aggressive climate agenda has left the country’s resource sector at a competitive disadvantage compared with other major energy producers.
WTI oil held a 91.98-96.47 range on the session, with traders reluctant to chase Iran peace talk optimism too aggressively -- a reflexive caution earned from experience with Trump's credibility on any given file.
Trump was forced to cancel Operation Freedom because Saudi Arabia barred the US military from using Prince Sultan Airbase and Saudi airspace. The Saudis were irked at not being consulted and called it an escalation which could put Saudi territory into Iran's crosshairs.
Asian equity markets surged on growing expectations that Trump's confrontation with Iran is winding down. Japan's Topix jumped 3.0%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 1.57% and Australia's ASX 200 climbed 0.96%.
As of 7:40 am, the UK FTSE 100 has lost 0.55%, the German DAX is down 0.17% and the French CAC 40 is down 0.22%. S&P 500 futures are flat, the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.327%, and the DXY is 97.91.
EURUSD consolidated in a 1.1745-1.1778 range, as the latest round of Iran war ceasefire optimism drove broad dollar weakness. The March Retail Sales print (actual -0.1%, forecast -0.3%, February -0.3%) was largely ignored.
GBPUSD inched higher in a 1.3590-1.3629 band, while brushing aside a poor Construction PMI result (actual 39.7, forecast 45.7, March 45.6). UK voters are casting ballots in a round of local and regional elections with roughly 5,000 council seats in play. The results could make Prime Minister Starmer’s life miserable.
USDJPY was steady in a 156.02-156.50, moving quietly with no signs of fresh intervention on the session. Nikkei news reported that the BoJ deployed roughly $28.8 billion in intervention operations over the past week. Minutes from the latest BoJ meeting pointed to a hawkish lean, with policymakers citing inflation pressures tied to the Iran conflict.
AUDUSD held a range of 0.7231-0.7265, recovering a portion of the prior session's losses as risk appetite improved, even as Australia reported its first trade deficit in eight years (actual -A$1.90 billion, forecast A$4.25 billion, February A$5.03 billion).
US Challenger job cuts data reported cuts rose by 38%, to 83,687 in April. Still to come: US weekly jobless claims (forecast 205,000 vs 189,000 last week)..
