- Markets trading cautiously ahead of major data this week
- Oil prices shrug off latest Iran/US news
- US dollar trading with a bit of a bid in early NY.
USDCAD open: 1.4189, overnight range 1.4175-1.4200, close 1.4193, WTI 70.58, Gold 4,033.11
The Canadian dollar rallied is drifting inside its well-defined range that has been intact since Friday. It will be a truncated week in Canada with markets closed on Wednesday. US markets shut down on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.
WTI oil prices shrugged of a bout of hostilities between Iran and the US on the weekend. WTI is near the bottom of its 69.33-70.79 range.
Monday is off to another sluggish start, the calm before a week stacked with first-tier data, central bank commentary, and holidays. Thursday's US nonfarm payrolls, (forecast 114,000) is the marquee event. The ECB's Sintra Conference gathering kicks off today with Lagarde, Warsh and Macklem attending.
Trump is threatened 100% tariffs on any country that levies a digital tax which injects another layer of uncertainty into trading.
Asian equities finished higher, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 1.57%. Australia's ASX 200 gaining 0.68% and Japan's Topix up 0.47%.
By 7:10 AM, European bourses were mixed. France's CAC 40 was off 0.32%, Germany's DAX sat flat, and Britain's FTSE 100 slipped 0.16%. S&P 500 futures were up 0.91%, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.375%, the DXY stood at 101.21, and gold (XAUUSD) traded at 4,033.62.
EURUSD edged up in a 1.1381-1.1415 band on the latest Iran-US ceasefire, though Trump's new tariff salvo and pre-Sintra caution kept a lid on the move. The pair stays in an intraday downtrend beneath 1.1450, weighed by bets on Fed hikes. Eurozone economic confidence improved in June to 95.0 from 93.7, but the print barely registered in the currency.
GBPUSD drifted in a 1.3191-1.3228 range through a quiet session, with traders biding time before a speech from Andy Burnham, the freshly crowned "Prime Minister-to-be who is delivering a major policy speech today.
USDJPY held a firm tone in a 161.72-161.90 range, propped up by the yawning US-Japan rate gap that the recent hawkish FOMC only widened. The weekend flare-up in Iran-US tensions added to the bid. For now, the spectre of coordinated US-BoJ intervention above 162.00 is capping the advance.
AUDUSD traded quietly in a 0.6881-0.6905 band as it digested last week's selloff. The Aussie is pinned by the policy split between a patient RBA and a hawkish Fed, alongside bearish technicals under 0.7000.
