- Trump launches another tariff salvo
- Oil prices remain steady but bid.
- USD opens on a mixed note
USDCAD open: 1.4080, overnight range 1.4066-1.4088, close 1.4085, WTI 90.19, Gold 4,089.73
The Canadian dollar traded sideways, albeit with a modest overnight bid. News of Trump's latest tariff move drew little reaction, since he has been firing tariff threats at Canada all year.
Yesterday's domestic retail sales data matched forecasts and passed through FX markets without leaving a trace.
Crude is off its peak levels but remains supported in a holding a 88.75-92.81 range. Markets are worried that Trump will escalate strikes against Iran now that the Houthi disruption of shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is compounding the upward pressure on prices. JPMorgan analysts estimate that each additional month of disrupted supply adds roughly $7.00 a barrel to Brent.
Yesterday Trump announced a fresh round of tariffs on 60 countries, citing "the Failure of Each Economy to Impose and Effectively Enforce a Prohibition on the Importation of Goods Produced with Forced Labor." Traders are still digesting the implications and the legality of the action
.
Asian equities turned defensive overnight following a sharp selloff on Wall Street. Japan's Topix dropped 1.05%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.98% and Australia's ASX 200 declined 0.75%.
By 7:30 am in Europe, the German Dax added 0.73%, France's CAC-40 rose 0.34% and the UK's FTSE 100 is flat. S&P 500 futures are up 0.20%, the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.685%,and the DXY is 101.37.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1375-1.1401 range, slipping toward the floor as the ECB's hawkish pause proved to be short-lived support
Policymakers kept rates steady at 2.25%, in line with expectations, while flagging inflation risks tilted higher and growth risks tilted lower.
Elevated energy costs continue to weigh on the region's growth outlook, and confirmation of U.S. tariffs against 60 economies added another headwind to the inflation picture. July's preliminary PMI readings beat forecasts by a narrow margin, but the tariff headlines drowned out any positive reaction.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.3306-1.3345 range, struggling to hold ground as costlier oil, mild demand for the U.S. dollar as a haven, softening inflation and persistent fiscal uncertainty all worked against it. Traders are now pricing an additional 75 basis points of Bank of England tightening, UK GfK Consumer Confidence for July rose to -17, better than the -21 forecast and Retail sales, got a lift from favourable weather and World Cup-related spending.
USDJPY traded in a 163.65-163.94 range, pushing toward the 164.00 mark before easing back to 163.73 in early New York dealing. Support came from firmer crude prices and climbing U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note touching an 18-month high of 4.71%. Japan's CPI and PPI figures landed in line with or slightly above forecasts, though the data barely registered against the backdrop of Trump's tariff announcement.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6964-0.6996 range, firming modestly after Manufacturing PMI improved to 51.7 from June's 51.5 and Services PMI climbed to 53 from 50.5. Those gains were largely era
On the data slate today, Canada releases its Industrial Product and Raw Material Price indexes along with the New Housing Price Index, while the US calendar brings the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales.
