When Merck (MRK) announced that it has a drug that reduces the risk of hospitalization and death due to Covid-19, the stock shot up by 8.4%.
On Oct. 1, Merck said, together with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, that its oral antiviral medicine molnupiravir reduced hospitalization or death by 50%. In 28/385 cases, 7.3% of patients getting the drug were either hospitalized or died. In a placebo of 53/377, the rate was 14.1%. Merck shopped the patient recruitment early thanks to the positive results. It will move ahead in applying for Emergency Use Authorization.
Pfizer (PFE), Moderna (MRNA), and Novavax (NVAX) are some of the vaccine stocks falling sharply that day. Market interpret an antiviral with that efficacy could lower the need for boosters.
The markets are too upbeat on the data. The study size is very small. The FDA could ask for more data. Furthermore, the sales volume for a vaccine is larger than that of a therapeutic. Still, Regeneron (REGN) reported billions in quarterly revenue for sales of its cocktail that treats infected Covid-19 patients.
Merck’s inexpensive drug is a good addition to the treatments available. If approved, patients will have another option. Besides, the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech efficacy decline over time. Doctors will have another treatment option for breakthrough cases.
