2023 is the year that Covid vaccine demand weakness accelerates. Investors who took profits last year on Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), and Moderna (MRNA) are not looking back. These three firms have limited upside from here.
Pfizer has a great valuation against weak growth. It pays investors $0.41 per quarter in dividends, which is not enough to offset the weak stock. It is pivoting beyond Covid vaccines by developing an RSV vaccine. Still, markets dismissed the positive 82% efficacy for maternal RSV.
Expect PFE stock to test new lows this year.
BioNTech has plenty of cash. This will set a floor of support for the stock as it trends lower. However, biotech investors do not expect it to meet the EUR 5 billion revenue for Covid shots this year.
In the Q4 report posted on Mar. 27, 2023, BioNTech posted revenue falling by 22.6% Y/Y. Biotech investing requires buying companies whose revenue grows. The expanded and advanced oncology pipeline to 20 programs has costs. This enriches future revenue while burning cash in the near term.
Moderna is more diversified than Biotech. This did not prevent shareholders from taking profits. Recently, markets ignored the mRNA cancer therapy data for mRNA-4157 (V940) for melanoma. This is a bearish sign for the stock.
