A majority of professional traders and market strategies expect the benchmark S&P 500 index will decline between now and year’s end, according to a new poll by the Reuters News Agency.
Factors weighing on markets in this year’s second half include elevated interest rates, troubled banks, and weak corporate earnings.
As a result, traders and other professional investors see the S&P 500 index ending the year at 4,150, down slightly from a recent close of 4,192.63, but still up about 8% for the entire year.
The S&P 500 is currently hovering near a nine-month high after declining 19.4% in 2022.
The Reuters poll surveyed 43 strategists and traders over the last two weeks. Most respondents said they expect U.S. stocks to be range bound in the coming three months, adding that the risk of a debt default in America is also hurting sentiment.
Gains this year in the S&P 500 and other equity markets are due largely to technology stocks, which have rallied as other areas of the market have faltered, notably banking and healthcare.
The latest poll forecast for the S&P 500 is down slightly from a 4,200 year-end 2023 target that was predicted in a February poll.
Those polled by Reuters also said that they expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to finish the year up 2.8%.
