The new class of weight loss drugs that includes Ozempic and Mounjaro could generate more than $100 billion U.S. in worldwide sales, according to Wall Street forecasts.
Analysts at Citigroup (C) have raised their estimate for sales of the prescription drugs to $71 billion U.S. by 2035, up from a previous estimate of $55 billion U.S.
However, Citigroup’s forecast seems conservative compared to investment firm Guggenheim Securities, which pegs global sales at between $150 billion U.S. and $200 billion U.S. over the next decade.
Guggenheim believes that the weight loss medications will become the most prescribed drugs ever by or before 2031.
Ozempic and Mounjaro have been proven to not only help people manage diabetes levels and lose weight, but studies are underway to show their benefits for cardiovascular disease and kidney disease. Some analysts have called the medications “wonder drugs.”
The medications are expensive at as much as $1,350 U.S. per month for Ozempic, and they are currently taken by injection, though the companies behind them are working on a pill version.
Right now, private insurance coverage isn’t guaranteed for people wanting the weight loss treatment in the U.S., and Medicare doesn’t cover weight loss drugs at all.
Analysts expect these issues to be resolved in time and expect peak sales for these weight loss drugs to reach $100 billion U.S. by 2030, including investment bank Goldman Sachs (GS).
Projections from analysts show that pharmaceutical firms Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) are likely to dominate the market for weight loss drugs in a duopoly.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that the two pharmaceutical companies will control 80% of the market for the weight loss drugs until at least 2030.
Both stocks are up sharply this year on optimism for the weight loss drugs. Eli Lilly’s stock has gained nearly 60% to $576.65 U.S., while Novo Nordisk’s stock has risen more than 40% to $97.12 U.S. per share.
