- Oil prices consolidate yesterday’s losses following Trump comments
- Global equity markets rebound sharply on improved risk sentiment
- The US dollar retreats but the Loonie underperforms.
USDCAD open: 1.3582, overnight range 1.3566-1.3602, close 1.3588, WTI 86.78, Gold 5182.50
The Canadian dollar consolidated yesterday’s losses after the WTI oil rally reversed course.
It’s all about oil, Iran, and Trump. Trump suggested the conflict in Iran “could end soon,” a remark that knocked oil prices lower. WTI dropped from a peak of 116.24/b on Monday to 87.35 in New York today. Just as the Canadian dollar rallied with oil price gains, it weakened when WTI fell.
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered Trump some suggestions on ending the war in Iran. Unsurprisingly, the suggested solution involved easing or removing sanctions on Russian crude exports.
Asian equities staged a rebound after Trump’s comments hinting the war might soon wind down. Japan’s Topix rose 2.47%, Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.28%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 2.17%.
As of 7:20 am, the German DAX has gained 2.60%, the French CAC 40 is up 1.19%, the UK FTSE 100 has climbed 1.78%. S&P 500 futures are flat and the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.12%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1607-1.1663 range because of the drop in crude oil prices. Germany’s trade surplus widened to €21.2 b in January from €17.4 b in December, but the data was ignored and the The Eurozone calendar offered no top-tier releases capable of shifting sentiment.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.3413-1.3484 range on improved risk appetite. UK retail data disappointed after BRC Like-for-Like Retail Sales rose just 0.7% y/y in February compared with forecasts for 2.4% and January’s 2.3% gain. Retailers blamed dreary weather conditions for the weak outcome.
USDJPY traded in a 157.28-157.96 range overnight before edging back to 157.73 in early New York trading. Japan’s fourth-quarter 2025 GDP expanded 1.3% y/y compared with 0.2% previously, driven by solid corporate investment and resilient private consumption.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.7053-0.7120 range and was hovering near the upper end of that band in early New York trade. The move reflected improved global risk sentiment and speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to keep interest rates elevated. Australia’s NAB Business Conditions index held steady at 7 in February while the Business Confidence gauge slipped to -1 from 4.
There are no top tier economic releases from Canada or the US today.
