- US and Iran ceasefire is fragile but still holding.
- US NFP likely overshadowed by inflation fears.
- The US dollar traded softer on improved risk sentiment.
USDCAD open: 1.3647, overnight range 1.3646-1.3667, close 1.3665, WTI 95.15, Gold 4,712.32.
The loonie lagged its G-10 counterparts despite a firmer oil market while awaiting todays domestic Labour Force survey.
April employment is expected to show a gain of 15,000 positions, up marginally from the 14,100 recorded in March. If the number lands close to forecast it will be quickly forgotten, as market attention remains firmly anchored to Washington and the Iran conflict.
Crude is holding a 93.86-98.02 range with the market in a wait-and-see posture ahead of Tehran's response to Trump's latest demands.
The US and Iran ceasefire is still holding even though both sides traded shots yesterday.
Iran retains control of the Strait of Hormuz. Three vessels transited in the past 24 hours, the same US navy ships that absorbed the missile fire.
April nonfarm payrolls are projected to come in at 62,000, a sharp deceleration from the 178,000 positions added in March, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.3%. The number may not matter much. Fed officials have been signaling a clear pivot in focus toward inflation. Taken together, the commentary suggests today's payrolls print will be overshadowed by price pressures and geopolitical noise.
Asian equity markets closed in the red. Japan's Topix eased 0.29%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng gave back 0.87% and Australia's ASX 200 retreated 1.51%.
As of 7:00 am, The UK FTSE 100 is flat, the German DAX is down 0.73% and the French CAC 40 has lost 0.65%. S&P 500 futures are up 0.49%, the 10-year Treasury yield stands at 4.369%, and the DXY is at 97.97.
EURUSD ground higher in a 1.1723-1.1774 range, supported in part by ongoing EU-US trade negotiations. Softer-than-expected German trade and industrial production data had no meaningful market reaction.
GBPUSD bounced within a 1.3548-1.3623 band, drawing support from the broadly softer dollar while domestic political turbulence went largely unpriced. A string of local election defeats has energized calls within Labour ranks for the Prime Minister's resignation.
USDJPY held a 156.02-156.53 range, moving cautiously with next week's visit by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent looming. The market is treating the upcoming talks as a near-certain venue for yen discussion, raising the probability of pre-emptive BoJ intervention before Bessent lands in Tokyo.
AUDUSD drifted between 0.7200 and 0.7242, finding modest support from the softer dollar backdrop and a mild improvement in commodity sentiment.
