- Iran and US violate ceasefire-again.
- Oil prices surge and risk sentiment sours.
- US dollar in demand in early NY trading.
USDCAD open: 1.3857, overnight range 1.3832-1.3859, close 1.3840, WTI 96.94, Gold 4,442.00
The Canadian dollar was under pressure overnight due to renewed risk aversion after Iran and the Us fired missiles and drones at each other.
The CUSMA review got underway Tuesday when Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc touched down in Washington, though Trump wasted little time setting the tone, posting "51st State" on Truth Social ahead of the talks.
It is widening CAD/US interest rate spreads that are weighing down the Canadian dollar. The 2 year CAD/US spread has widened 31.4 bps in the past 30 days.
Washington launched strikes against an Iranian oil tanker and a radar installation. Tehran's battered military answered with missile and drone salvos directed at Kuwait's airport and US bases in Bahrain.
Asian equities finished mostly higher, with Japan's Topix adding 1.83% and Australia's ASX 200 up 0.70%, though Hong Kong's Hang Seng bucked the trend with a 1.56% decline.
As of 7:15 am, the German DAX off 0.99%, the French CAC 40 down 0.30%, and the UK FTSE 100 has lost 0.38%. S&P 500 futures are flat. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.485%, DXY at 99.32, and gold (XAUUSD) at 4,461.72.
EURUSD traded in a 1.1605-1.1634 range, unable to sustain upside momentum yesterday, after the JOLTS report bolstered the case for the Fed to hold rates steady. ECB rate hike expectations are providing a partial offset, with a 25 bp move on June 11 widely priced in.
GBPUSD traded in a 1.3436-1.3472 band, weighed down by a combination of dollar strength and disappointing domestic figures. The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity Index slipped from 52.7 in April to 49.3 in May, dropping into contraction territory and adding to sterling's headwinds alongside the renewed flare-up in Middle East tensions.
USDJPY consolidated between 159.37 and 160.00 as rising oil prices and resilient US labour data pushed the pair to the upper boundary, testing the Bank of Japan's tolerance.
AUDUSD drifted within a 0.7152-0.7183 range, absorbing selling pressure after Q1 GDP came in at 0.3% q/q, short of the 0.5% consensus estimate. The Services PMI printed at 47.7, unchanged from April and broadly as anticipated. Deteriorating global risk sentiment tied to the Iran-US confrontation provided additional drag.
Todays US data includes US ADP employment change report, and the ISM Services PMI release.
