Our economy here in Canada has been on a bit of a run lately, with the second half of 2016 one of its better performances since the 2009 recession, a fact that has relieved some of the anxiety over recent moves by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, particularly on trade.
For the most part, investors are brushing off concerns that Trump’s policies could weigh on Canada’s economy, given that the country added 229,000 new jobs last year, the most since 2012.
About 164,800 jobs, or nearly three-quarters, were created in the last six months of 2016, making it the best half-year gain since 2010.
Second-half exports grew at the fastest pace since 2014, led by a rebound in oil shipments.
Data is tracking fourth-quarter growth of almost 2%, following a 3.5% annualized pace in the third quarter. That’s also the strongest back-to-back performance since 2014.
Experts say the year-end trade data report and January jobs numbers -- both due out this week -- will provide the freshest evidence of how entrenched the recovery really is. In fact, they may have out-sized importance since Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz won’t get final fourth-quarter data before his March 1 rate decision. Gross domestic product numbers come out March 2.
That makes it extremely difficult for policy makers to gauge the impact of recent fiscal stimulus on the economy ahead of the decision. In a speech last week, Poloz said government infrastructure spending still hadn’t shown up in the data.
Economists forecast a second straight trade surplus in December and a small drop in employment in January.
