Loonie Flat to Begin Week

The Canadian dollar is relatively flat today. There’s plenty of domestic data risk this week. Investors will see Retail Sales figures on Tuesday, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri speaks on Wednesday and Consumer Price Index on Friday. Technicals remains neutral to bullish with the U.S. dollar biased to trade back higher towards the $1.3400 area. The level at $1.3300 remains a big support level on the downside.

The U.S. dollar is trading soft against most of its G10 counterparts today. Equity markets are generally lower and commodities are mixed with oil weaker while gold and base metals firmer. The G20 meeting over the weekend was fairly low-key with little market reaction. A number of U.S. Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to comment this week which could give the market more insight into the Fed’s rate path. Federal Open Market Committee member Charles Evans speaks this afternoon and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will also speak on Thursday.

Experts expect a range today of $1.3283 to $1.3353 Canadian

German Producer Prices in February fell short of expectation and printed at 0.2% m/m and 3.1% y/y. European Central Bank member Ignazio Visco made a comment about how interest rates would increase quicker than expected after Quantitative Easing has ended. This comment did little to effect the euro and the French election is still on the investors’ radar. The common currency is currently trading at $1.4331 Canadian.

Traders expect a range today of $1.4279 to $1.4397 Canadian

No U.K. fundamental release today, leaving the pound to trade on hawkish sentiments from the Bank of England last week. Brexit still has not been officially triggered and additional political risks is still lingering with speculations that Prime Minister Theresa May might call a snap election for a Scottish referendum. Investors have CPI on deck tomorrow projected for 2.1% y/y. The pound sterling is currently trading at $1.6529 Canadian.

Market watchers expect a range today of $1.6484 to $1.6560 Canadian

The Australian dollar is well supported today with the Aussie trading to the highest level against the U.S. dollar since early November. Weaker copper prices failed to dampen the Aussie’s gains as focus remains on U.S. dollar weakness. Main risk event will be the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes at 8:30 pm ET.

Oil (WTI): $48.77 U.S. per barrel

Gold: $1,227.95 U.S. per ounce

Silver: $17.35 U.S. per ounce

Copper: $2.6774 U.S. per tonne.

Dollar Index: 100.30

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