The annual deficit in the United States has been on a downward trajectory since 2009. But experts in government offices say that streak could end this year.
The Congressional Budget Office now projects this year's deficit will rise to $590 billion U.S., or 3.2% of the economy. That's up from $438 billion, or 2.5% of GDP in 2015.
The majority of that increase is due to slower-than-expected growth in the first half of the year and lower-than-expected revenue coming into the federal government in Washington
But the CBO expects economic growth to pick up for the second half of 2016 and all of 2017.
While that prospect will temper annual deficits for the next couple of years, the agency estimates they'll hit 4.6% by the end of the decade, primarily because growth in spending will start to outpace economic growth in a few years thanks to an anticipated jump in so-called mandatory spending and interest payments on the debt.
The biggest chunk of mandatory spending is the automatic payments of Medicare and Social Security benefits, which are growing as the population ages and health costs rise. By contrast, so-called discretionary spending -- which basically pays for most other things (education, defense, cybersecurity, national parks, infrastructure scientific research, etc.) -- is on track to fall to its lowest level as a share of the economy since 1962.
Interest on the debt, meanwhile, is expected to double as a share of gross domestic product in the next decade both because of a projected rise in interest rates and growth in the accumulation of federal debt held by the public.
The CBO projects that debt will grow from 77% of GDP this year to nearly 86% by 2026.
