Canada's retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars worth of American goods came into play this week, and economists say the immediate effect of the escalating trade dispute on the Canadian economy is expected to be small.
But that's the extent of the good news, as in North America's interconnected economy, it's not just the producers of steel and aluminum that will feel the brunt.
It's also manufacturers who make things of steel and aluminum, and potentially the auto industry, where President Donald Trump has threatened more tariffs.
As at least one economist warned, the impact may lower business confidence and result in reduced investments.
If a trade war with the U.S. persists, economists say metal ore mining jobs have the smallest risk of being affected by the tariffs, since mining doesn't rely heavily on U.S. buyers.
Metal mining also employs a low number of people: About 42,000. Most jobs are concentrated in the greater Sudbury area, the central Ontario division of Cochrane, and in western Quebec, around Val d'Or.
But the single biggest share is in Labrador, where 12.5% of all jobs are in metal mining
Things get a little riskier for aluminum manufacturers, but not terribly so. Canada has an abundant and low-cost supply of aluminum and U.S. production is already at capacity, so Canadian aluminum will continue to be needed by U.S. customers.
The biggest risk is for manufacturers who make steel and steel-based materials, since it's a far more competitive industry and steel and metal components can cross the border several times before being made into final product.
That's because Canada's retaliatory tariffs would have to be paid on U.S. steel components.
The largest concentration of manufacturing jobs that use steel are in the southern tip of Ontario, in a corridor stretching from Windsor to Guelph. In the census division of Oxford, which includes Woodstock and Ingersoll, 23.5% of jobs are in metal manufacturing.
The manufacturing belt in Eastern Quebec, especially the Beauce region, is also highly exposed.
In all, 3.2% of jobs in Canada are exposed to these tariffs.
