Economy

Economic Commentary

Economic Calendar

Global Economies

Global Economic Calendar

Job Market Still Hungry for Workers, on Eve of Jobs Reports

Despite all the trade war talk, the outlook for Friday's jobless numbers in both the U.S. and Canada remains strong.

A poll of top bank economists predicts the U.S. rate will stay at 3.8%, the lowest level since April 2000.

In Canada, the numbers for June are expected to show unemployment remained at a low 5.8% and that the economy cranked out 20,000 new jobs.

And despite complaints from young people about how hard it is to get work, there is evidence to suggest they've never had it so good.

Statistics Canada is saying that the youth unemployment rate is consistently, roughly, twice the rate of the core-age unemployment rate, meaning that as overall unemployment has declined, youth joblessness has fallen with it.

In the past, a young person might drop out of school to begin a lifelong career on a farm, in a factory, or in a mine.

But since 1976, when Statistics Canada began keeping track, the employment path of workers in the 15-24 age group has transformed. In 1976, for example, a minority of those workers (43%) were students. Now, the majority (63%) are still in school.

Perhaps reflecting that, in 1976, only 21% of workers in that age group were employed part time. Now, it's roughly half. And despite a relatively high turnover rate, the length of time young people spend out of work is far less than the average for the core 25-54 age group.