USD/CAD - FOMC Minutes Out this Afternoon

The Canadian dollar is down against the U.S. dollar this week with lower commodity prices and a strong U.S. dollar sentiment. Today, investors have Foreign Security Purchase out for the month of June, giving the market the climate conditions that foreign investors have for purchasing Canadian securities and the loonie. Then at 10:30 am we have U.S. oil inventories forecast for -2.7 million compared to the previous week of -6.4 million.

The Canadian dollar's biggest event risk will be Consumer Price Index figures on Friday morning. If the inflation gauge shows signs of an increase, the loonie would be back in demand as the market would price in another rate hike from the Bank of Canada in the near term.

The U.S. dollar remains the top performing currency overnight as it traded in a consolidated range against its trading peers before the release of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes at 2 p.m. today. The minutes will give traders a look into voting members’ thoughts of interest rate paths and may also may provide insight into whether any dialogue occurred on the Fed's $4.5-trillion balance sheet.

U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits for the U.S. both missed expectations with no immediate effect on the dollar; investors focus may be drawn to big box construction store stocks. The 23-year-old North American Free Trade Agreement or NAFTA talks begin today in Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto meet till Aug. 20 to discuss and sort disputes over goods and services.

Investors expect a range today of $1.2698 to $1.2738

Overall positive employment data in June released out of the U.K. today. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4% from the expected 4.5%, Employment Change grew to 125,000 from the expected 97,000, and Weekly Earnings also made gains of 2.1%, which was in line with expectations. The sterling is currently trading at $1.6381.

Investors expect a range today of $1.4836 to $1.4920

Italian Gross Domestic Product printed mainly in line with expectations at 1.5% y/y and 0.4% q/q while the Euro-zone GDP also hit the mark at 2.2% y/y and 0.6% q/q. The euro-zone economy has picked up steam over the past quarters, and much of the credit is given to Germany. The powerhouse has posted 12 consecutive quarters of growth. The euro is currently trading at 1.4894.

Experts expect a range today of $1.6308 to $1.6394

The Australian dollar is staging a recovery today after Australian wage price data came in hitting the target of 0.5% q/q. However, it remains to be seen if the Aussie can build on the momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes this afternoon and the Australian employment data tonight at 9:30 pm EST. The forecast is for an increase of 19,800 jobs.

Oil (WTI): $47.76 U.S. per barrel

Gold: $1,271.01 U.S. per ounce

Silver: $16.76 U.S. per ounce

Copper: $2.8822 U.S. per tonne

Dollar Index: 93.99

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