USD/CAD - NAFTA Main Focus

The Canadian dollar remains in a tight weekly range of $1.2440 to $1.2530. Traders expected the range to hold barring U.S. economic data released throughout the day. Canadian fundamentals are nil, so Canadian focus is on NAFTA. Prime Minister Trudeau meet with President Trump yesterday to share views and thoughts on the agreement. Trudeau is in Mexico to meet with Mexican President Enrique Nieto on the subject. The fourth round of NAFTA talks will come to a close on October 16th. WTI Crude Oil rose on the news that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries says the oil glut will be cleared by the third quarter of 2018.

U.S. fundamentals are front and center this morning with Consumer Price Index on all scales missing expectations, except that CPI YoY printed well above previous of 1.9% at 2.2% and CPI excluding the more volatile items of food and energy printed as prior of 1.7%. Retail Sales missed expectations of 1.7%, but is well ahead of last month’s -0.1% and headlined at 1.6%. At 10 a.m. today, investors will mull the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence results, which are expected for 95.0. Fed speakers today are Charles Evans, Robert Kaplan, and Jerome Powell at 10:25, 11:30 and 1:00 p.m. respectively.

Experts expect a range today of $1.2440 to $1.2530

German CPI printed as expected in September at 0.1% m/m and 1.8% y/y. Unnamed sources at the European Central Bank have hinted towards a nine-month Quantitative Easing extension, but at a reduced pace of EUR 30 billion/month from EUR 60 billion/month. This initially weighed on the euro but has now recovered from its weakness. The euro is currently trading $1.4787.

Commentators expect a range today of $1.4739 to $1.4838

No economic fundamentals came out of the U.K. this morning leaving the sterling to trade on Brexit developments. Brexit is and will continue to be the primary focus especially after a "deadlock" comment from the European Union’s Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will appear on CNBC this morning. The pound is currently trading at $1.6583.

Investors expect a range today of $1.6577 to $1.6672

The Australian dollar jumped higher today after Chinese trade data showed a steady uptick in imports. The market shrugged off the cautious Reserve Bank of Australia Financial Stability Report report as it trades to a new weekly high. Positive sentiment around the commodity space, especially in copper adds further support for the Aussie up move today.

Oil (WTI): $51.69 U.S. per barrel

Gold: $1,301.49 U.S. per ounce

Silver: $17.35 U.S. per ounce

Copper: $3.128 U.S. per tonne

Dollar Index: 92.83


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