USD/CAD - Traders Await Oil Inventory News

Canadian Manufacturing Shipments released this morning above forecasts of 1.0% and shipments printed at 1.6%. The Canadian dollar’s most significant event risk is Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales, which will both release on Friday just ahead of the Bank of Canada's Monetary Policy Report and interest rate announcement next Wednesday.

Federal Open Market Committee members William Dudley and Robert Kaplan both spoke at 8 this morning and the dollar index was at 93.65 at 7:20 am EDT, then after the speeches the dollar index was at $93.59. US building permits and housing starts for September both headlined below expectations at -4.5% and -4.7% respectively. WTI Crude oil remains elevated over $52.00 per barrel with hampered supply coming out of Iraq; inventories will also release at 10:30 a.m. today with previous reading of -2.7 million.

Traders expect a range today of $1.2443 to $1.2536

No economic fundamentals are due out of Europe today. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi did speak this morning in Frankfurt, but there were no hints towards future monetary policy, specifically, whether the bank will extend or not. The market, however, has priced in an extension of Quantitative Easing to 2018, but at a reduced pace of EUR 30 billion/month from EUR 60 billion/month. The euro is currently trading at $1.4717.

Experts expect a range today of $1.4665 to $1.4753

Employment data in August was the main highlight today in the U.K., and they were mainly mixed. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.3% as expected, but Employment Change dropped to 94,000 from expectations of 148,000. Weekly Earnings exceeded expectations and printed at 2.2% and 2.1% ex-bonus. The U.K. is improving, and the market is still favouring a rate hike in November and probability has jumped from 75% last week to 83% today. The pound sterling is currently trading at $1.6474.

Observers expect a range today of $1.6400 to $1.6494

The Australian dollar is holding steady this morning as we head into jobs data this evening. Yesterday’s spike in copper helped the Aussie’s recovery, but the momentum has since subsided as copper consolidates after yesterday’s spike. The focus today will be the job numbers for September, and the market is forecasting for an increase of 15,000

Oil (WTI): $52.20 U.S. per barrel

Gold: $1,280.23 U.S. per ounce

Silver: $16.987 U.S. per ounce

Copper: $3.1939 U.S. per tonne

Dollar Index: 93.58