- Markets expecting the Fed to pivot.
- RNBZ leaves rates unchanged, as expected.
- US dollar opens weaker compared to yesterday but mixed from the close.
USDCAD: open 1.3583-87, overnight range 1.3541-1.3594, close 1.3575, WTI $77.46, Gold, $2037.65
The Canadian dollar rose further overnight due to a combination of dovish comments by Fed officials and month-end US dollar selling pressures.
The US dollar technical picture turned bearish with the decisive breach of 1.3580, the uptrend line which has guided prices higher since July 14. The breach opens the door to further USDCAD losses to the 1.3400-10 area.
Canadian dollar demand is being bolstered by month-end flows. The S&P 500 index has risen over 8.5% in November, which suggests portfolio managers need to buy Canadian dollars to rebalance their portfolios.
Yesterday, noted Federal Reserve hawk Christopher Waller sounded like he has embraced his dovish side. He said, "I am increasingly confident that policy is currently well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%," adding that if the decline in inflation continues for several more months, we could start lowering the policy rate. Those comments added to the Fed will pivot argument and served to drive the 10-year US Treasury yield to 4.25% from its close at 4.34%.
Asian equity indexes closed with losses, except for Australia's ASX 200, which gained 0.29%. European bourses are firmly in the "green zone," led by a 0.95% rise in the German Dax. S&P 500 futures are up 0.45%.
EURUSD traded in a 1.0969-1.1018 range, supported by month-end flows. German inflation fell more than expected (actual 3.2% y/y vs. forecast 3.5%), which supports claims that ECB rates have peaked.
GBPUSD was choppy in a 1.2674-1.2733 band. The currency is gaining a bit of support from policymakers suggesting interest rates need to remain restrictive for a prolonged time.
USDJPY bopped and weaved in time with US Treasury yield moves, trading in a 146.98-147.85 range. BoJ board member Seiji Adachi said that monetary policy needs to remain unchanged for longer before embarking on a tightening program.
AUDUSD traded in a 0.6613-0.6677 range. Australia's October CPI rate fell to 4.9% y/y from 5.5%, which downgraded RBA rate hike concerns.
NZDUSD bounced in a 0.6132-0.6209 range. Prices peaked after the RBNZ left the overnight cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.5% but warned further rate hikes could be necessary if inflation doesn't fall further.
Today's US data includes Q3 GDP (forecast 5.0% vs. previous 4.9%), Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Wholesale Inventories, and the Fed's Beige Book.
