The Trump Administration in the United States says its decision to end a program safeguarding young undocumented immigrants from deportation will open job opportunities for struggling U.S. workers.
But economists on both sides of the political spectrum say the move will harm the U.S. economy, reducing output and making it even tougher to find workers in an already tight labour market, without doing anything positive for ordinary Americans.
That's because the 800,000 immigrants who came to the U.S. as children and who are protected by the policy — called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or DACA — are more educated and more productive than undocumented immigrants broadly. And with unemployment at a low 4.4%, many U.S. businesses are struggling to find qualified workers, especially highly-skilled ones.
This week, the U.S. Labor Department came out with a report noting a record 6.2 million job openings in June.
In all, 91%, of the 800,000 immigrants, or about 730,000, are employed, according to a survey last month led by the University of California, San Diego, the left-leaning Center for American Progress and the National Immigration Law Center.
Assuming Congress doesn't renew DACA and all the young immigrants are deported in the next few years, Moody's Analytics estimates the hit to the nation's gross domestic product will gradually rise as a growing number lose their temporary residency status. That would culminate in $105 billion U.S. in reduced economic output in 2022. That means an economy that has been growing a modest 2% annually instead would expand by 1.8% within a year and 1.5% within five years
