Ukraine’s harvest of agricultural products such as wheat and corn could fall as much as 50% this year, putting pressure on global food supplies and causing prices to rise.
Ukraine was among the world’s top producers of commodities such as wheat, corn, and barley before war with Russia broke out in February 2022.
The conflict caused global prices for wheat and corn to hit decade highs and led to ongoing price volatility.
While prices have declined 13% so far in 2023, they could spike again as Ukraine’s production of various agriculture products falls to new lows, according to Episode 3, a global agricultural analysis firm.
Data from the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization suggests that as much as 30% of the acreage of winter wheat crops sown in Ukraine last year will not be harvested this summer because of a lack of fuel.
Ukraine’s corn crop is estimated at 21 million metric tons this year, half the level it was at in 2021 before Russia invaded the country.
Ukraine is also having trouble exporting its agriculture products because of the war with Russia, requiring shifts in international trade flows and putting pressure on other countries, including the U.S. and Canada, to increase their crop yields.
The situation in Ukraine has contributed to rising food prices globally, with inflation above 5% in more than 80% of low-income countries, according to the World Bank.
